How Does Expected Value (EV) Work in Sports Betting?

Question

What is expected value in sports betting and how does it affect my betting strategy?

Answer 1

Expected value (EV) in sports betting is what you can expect to win on average over time, not necessarily what you're guaranteed to win in each bet. It's calculated by considering the probability of an outcome and the price you're getting. A positive EV means the price is better than the probability, indicating a valuable bet. Sharp bettors look for these positive EV opportunities to make a profit in the long run.

Comments

Im new to betting and am filtering through all the bets to find the ones i prefer. In order to determine the smartest bets, i guess i need the proper online tools that you show and use through unabated? I dont bet big and am not sure about buying this or oddschecker yet but will if this is smartest/only way for ev’s etc?

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Can a heavy favorite have value? I am starting a system in a market usually offering -220s to -240s but I see often the probabilities are much higher. Getting the averages shows me the probabilities are in to 80%s some of the teams this season have hit this bet 31 of 37 times or more. Please advise

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I have a spreadsheet that statistically predicts the score of any football match in any league in the world.