How Can I Use a Betting Exchange to Find Value Bets?

Question

How can I use a betting exchange to identify bets with positive expected value?

Answer 1

Betting exchanges like Betfair are useful for identifying value bets because they reflect the wisdom of the crowd, providing a more accurate gauge of the true odds of an event. By comparing the odds offered by bookmakers to those on the exchange, you can spot discrepancies where the bookmaker's odds are higher. For instance, if the exchange shows odds of 4.0 for a runner, but a bookmaker is offering 5.0, this indicates a positive expected value bet on the bookmaker's site, as you're getting better odds than the market suggests.

Comments

Let's consider a scenario where Newport is playing against Cambridge Utd. The true odds for Newport to win the match are 2.20. However, the bookies are currently offering odds of 1.90, which indicates that there is no value in betting on Newport to win at this moment.
An alternative strategy could be to wait until the game is live and observe how it unfolds. If Newport has not scored within the first 30 minutes of the match, the odds for them winning would likely increase closer to the true odds of 2.20. By doing so, one might find better value for betting on Newport's victory from the perspective of in-play betting

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how long does it normally take to find a value bet on a greyhound race ?

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So the strategy just boils down to finding bets that are undervalued compared to the betfair price? But how do we know that the betfair prices are the most accurate? If they were, then wouldn't 365 just base their prices off betfair?

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what other bookies can you use for this method

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hi caan ive got a question for you if you dont mind, im a small time punter and occasionally i like to bet on the tote, but ive noticed that most tote dividends these days mainly the win and place dividends seem to mirror the bookies SP!. i  seem to remember when tote dividends could easily outstrip the SP! i would like to hear your opinion on this because surely the tote is supposed to be pool betting.

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You can get valued bets for every game almost , you wait few minutes after start and if there is no goal the odds will raise , and you have overvalued bet

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Wow nice one!! Glad I found you, cheers! Been at this lark for over twenty years now, never even thought of this. I look for perceived value always, but that's my perception, which is likely less reliable than Betfair!! :)) I'll have a good look through your videos, and thanks again.

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Hello Australian bookmakers have lots of bonus back promotions for 2nd and 3rd places in horse racing. I would like to use betfair data to estimate fair prices of horse close to the jump of races and then bet on a normal bookmaker when I see close to fair value on a horse. What would be the best method to do so? Should I use betfair API to determine fair prices while oberving a bookmakers odds and then betting when i can get close tp fair value? Is there other software I should use?
Please help thank you for your time!

Do you know of API services for bookmakers that aren't exchanges?

I don't want to matchbet because hedging reduces my edge. I have a healthy risk apetite.

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So I've been winning loads of money by going into the betting shop and using the betting machines to place my bets on, I have my mobile phone in my hand using betfair betting exchange as a guide for the price change for a greyhound race thats next to run, an if I see value for money I will place my bet on the machine when I see betfair exchange market moving, I get better odds before the price changes on the machine, top tip tho don't stay in the same bookies move about or they could get suspicious

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In the current climate , you’ll get away with doing this twice , maybe 3 times , and then you’ll be restricted .a complete Sisyphean task your highlighting here for a very small gain .
Also you didn’t highlight the fact that you need too be really quick with your mouse , or you’ll miss the value in an instant !