To calculate probabilities for money lines and totals, you should start by observing line movement to see where the line is moving. For example, if a baseball money line play opens at -120 and moves to -150, or if a total opens at 8.5 and drops to 7.5, these are indicators you should consider. Next, examine head-to-head trends of the teams playing, focusing on recent matchups within the last couple of years, as older data may not be relevant. Look at the home and away records in these matchups to narrow down the probability of what could happen in the game. By combining line movement analysis with recent head-to-head trends, you can get a ballpark probability for the outcome of the game.
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